TRP.TO
🇨🇦TSXCanadian EnergyTC Energy Corporation
5-year price history
- Q1 2026 comparable EBITDA rose 14% year-over-year to CA$3.09B, and TC Energy reaffirmed full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance of CA$11.6B–$11.8B (~7% growth), raising the quarterly dividend 3.2% to CA$0.8775/share — its 26th consecutive annual increase.
- The NGTL System set an all-time single-day delivery record of 18.3 Bcf on January 22, 2026, and TC Energy is extending its 5–7% annual comparable EBITDA growth outlook through 2028, supported by ~CA$4B of capital entering service in 2026 including Bison XPress and Bruce Power Unit 3.
- Post the South Bow liquids pipeline spinoff, TC Energy is now a pure-play natural gas and power infrastructure company with reduced commodity exposure, while new commercial agreements for Coastal GasLink Phase 2 and an Indigenous ownership framework for NGTL would lower cost of capital.
- Coastal GasLink has experienced cost overruns from an original CA$6.6B budget to ~CA$14.5B, and as of early 2026 ongoing regulatory delays from B.C. groundwater protection concerns and First Nations litigation risk inflating costs a further CA$2–3B while delaying cash flow recovery.
- TC Energy carries ~CA$60B in total debt with debt/EBITDA of ~4.8x — while asset sales have helped deleverage, softer AECO basis differentials (averaging CA$1.20/GJ in March 2026) pressure realized tolls on the NGTL system.
- Post-federal election regulatory shifts in Canada could tighten emissions rules on natural gas infrastructure, and TC Energy's Southeast Gateway Pipeline in Mexico adds cross-border political and contract risk not fully reflected in consensus estimates.
TRP is a higher-risk version of ENB — similar regulated pipeline model but with a heavier debt burden from the Coastal GasLink overrun. The asset sale program is the right response but it will take time to show up in leverage ratios. The 7%+ yield reflects that risk. Canadian investors who already own ENB are adding correlated risk by also holding TRP; those who don't own a Canadian pipeline might prefer ENB's cleaner balance sheet.
| Account | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| TFSA | Good | High eligible dividend yield works in a TFSA but the balance sheet risk warrants a smaller position than ENB. |
| RRSP | Good | Tax-deferred income; registered accounts smooth the volatility of the deleveraging process. |
| FHSA | Avoid | High leverage and balance sheet uncertainty add risk inappropriate for the shorter FHSA horizon. |
| Non-reg | OK | Eligible dividend tax credit applies. Position sizing matters — don't double up if you already own ENB. |
Ideal = best tax outcome · Avoid = material drag or ineligible · Color and symbol, not color alone, indicate fit.
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