ABX.TO
🇨🇦TSXPrecious MetalsBarrick Gold Corporation
5-year price history
- The Mali Loulo-Gounkoto settlement (paying $430M to resolve disputes) restores operational control of a mine capable of producing ~362,500 oz in 2026, recovering a key asset that was suspended through most of 2025.
- Full-year 2025 production of 3.26M oz generated record operating cash flow of $2.73B and free cash flow of $1.62B, demonstrating strong leverage to gold — analysts at Goldman and CIBC forecast 50–80% YoY EPS growth for 2025–2026.
- The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan (Barrick 50% stake) is expected to be one of the world's five largest copper mines producing ~800,000 tonnes of copper concentrate per year from late 2028, adding meaningful long-duration diversification.
- 2026 gold AISC guidance of $1,760–$1,950/oz is materially higher than the $1,637/oz achieved in 2025, with cost inflation from energy, labour, and royalties compressing margins even at elevated gold prices.
- 2026 attributable gold production guidance of 2.9–3.25M oz is below 2025's 3.26M oz due to mine sequencing and the Hemlo/Tongon divestitures, meaning volume growth is flat to negative near-term.
- Reko Diq construction is being slowed due to rising security concerns in Pakistan, raising execution risk on the project that underpins Barrick's long-term copper growth thesis.
Barrick is the name most Canadian investors think of first for gold exposure — and it's earned that position through balance sheet discipline under Bristow. But the jurisdictional complexity is real and Barrick trades at a discount to AEM or FNV partly because of it. For a Canadian investor who wants gold mining exposure and doesn't mind geopolitical risk in the portfolio, ABX at a lower multiple than AEM is the trade. Eligible dividends help the after-tax math.
| Account | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| TFSA | Ideal | TSX-listed eligible dividend plus gold price optionality in a tax-free account — strong TFSA candidate for precious metals exposure. |
| RRSP | Ideal | Gold miners are volatile — tax-deferred compounding inside an RRSP smooths the tax impact of that volatility. |
| FHSA | Good | Gold exposure as a hedge and eligible dividends work in an FHSA, though mining volatility warrants modest sizing. |
| Non-reg | Good | Eligible dividend credit applies. The commodity nature means capital gains/losses can be tax-loss harvested tactically in non-reg. |
Ideal = best tax outcome · Avoid = material drag or ineligible · Color and symbol, not color alone, indicate fit.
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